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Prognostic markers in cirrhotic patients requiring intensive care: a comparative prospective study

Sehmus Ölmez, Yüksel Gümürdülü, Adnan Tas, Emre Karakoc, Banu Kara, Adem Kidik


Introduction. The use of prognostic models for cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) is of great importance, since they provide an objective evaluation for a group of patients with high mortality rates and high resource utilization. Objective. To evaluate the validity and to compare the prognostic predictive value of the CTP, MELD, SOFA and APACHE II scoring systems in cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU, the CTP and MELD models being exclusive for patients with liver disease. Material and methods. Commonly used predictors of mortality such as age, sex, CTP, MELD, APACHE II and SOFA were evaluated, and their prognostic value was investigated. Results. A total of 201 patients were included in this study. Patients who survived had mean CTP score of 9.5 ± 2.4, MELD score 18.1 ± 7.1, APACHE II score of 13.4 ± 4.8 and SOFA score of 4.2 ± 2.6, compared to respective scores of 11.4 ± 2.8, 28.0 ± 11.2, 24.6 ± 10.4 and 8.7 ± 4.0 in patients who died. The difference between groups was statistically significant for each of one of the scoring systems (p < 0.001). Conclusion. In this study, SOFA was found to be the most powerful predictor of prognosis for cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU. This was followed by APACHE II, MELD and CTP models, in descending order of strength (AUROC values of 0.847, 0.821, 0.790 and 0.724, respectively).

Key words. Intensive care patients, Cirrhosis, APACHE II, MELD, CTP, SOFA, AUROC, Mortality

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The Official Journal of the Mexican Association of Hepatology, the Latin-American Association for the Study of the Liver and the Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver

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